Democrat Pat Quinn is among nearly a dozen governors at risk of losing their jobs this election. Reasons vary from state to state, but Quinn continues to be dogged by persistent unemployment, low credit ratings, and the worst-funded pension system in the nation. His Republican opponent, Bruce Rauner, began attacking Quinn on these issues before the March primary.
Rauner spent millions of his own money on TV ads as Quinn's fellow Democrats in the General Assembly failed to approve a pension overhaul and as ratings agencies like Moody's downgraded the state's credit worthiness.
Rauner's early investment worked. By August, a Politico poll showed the challenger's approval ratings at 51%, while the incumbent Governor's numbers slumped to 33%. Today, most polls show Quinn with a lead that's within the margin of error. So what happened to Rauner?
According to political scientist Matt Streb, Rauner was still relatively unknown in the summer. "Quinn has done a good job of framing who Rauner is in the eyes of the electorate," Streb says, "so Rauner really had nowhere to go but down."
Streb says the Governor's improved ratings probably don't result from voters' warmer feelings. "I think," Streb says, "they feel more comfortable with Pat Quinn than they do with Bruce Rauner."
In a tight race, mobilizing voters becomes hugely important. One way Democrats have tried to goose turnout is through referenda, including a non-binding question on raising the minimum wage. But another threat to the Rauner campaign is the candidacy of Chad Grimm, a Libertarian approved by state election authorities despite Republican efforts to knock him off the ballot.
A recent Chicago Tribune poll gives Grimm 4% of voter support, but experts like Streb are cautious about this poll. "The number-one rule of thumb about third-party candidates is you take how they're doing in the most recent poll, and you cut that in half," Streb says. "It costs me nothing to say I'm going to vote for a Libertarian candidate in a poll." When voters enter the voting booth, says Streb, they have to confront the question of whether they'd be wasting their vote.
"I'm sure you'll get phone calls from Libertarians about that," Matt smiles. "Everybody talks about Ralph Nader being a spoiler in 2000. He won about two percent of the vote!"
Of course, Rauner can work the margins too. There are only a handful of Democratic counties in the state, and Streb says Rauner has the organization to steal just enough support in solid-blue Cook County. That's because he's from northern Cook -- an advantage that Quinn's 2010 opponent, Bill Brady, didn't have.
"Bill Brady was from downstate, and Quinn won essentially because of Cook County," Streb says. "So I think Rauner has a very good chance to cut into Quinn's base in Cook County."
Rauner is also winning on fundraising -- $64 million compared to Quinn's $29 million. Much of Rauner's money comes from himself ($26 million) but other top donors include the Republican Governors Association and the Illinois Association of Manufacturers. Quinn's money largely comes from political action committees and unions.
But even if Rauner wins, Streb notes, he'll still have to contend with House Speaker Michael Madigan. Streb says it would be interesting to watch how Rauner, a business leader, interacts with the man who's arguably the state's most powerful Democrat:
"If Rauner's the governor of Illinois, he's got a bully pulpit. But then he's got to go to the Legislature and there's Mike Madigan saying `What are you going to do to me?'"
On Tuesday, Matt Streb will join the WNIJ news team for live coverage as the results come in. Listen to our special coverage after the polls close at 7:00 p.m. Feel free to join the conversation on social media. #WNIJ2014Election
