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Matt Streb: Don't Expect Surprise In Dist. 18 Primary

Today, voters in Illinois' 18th Congressional District choose a Democrat and a Republican for the race to replace former U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock.

Only a small number of voters will go to the polls, according to Matt Streb, who chairs the political science department at Northern Illinois University.

"It'll be a low turnout with a special election," Streb says, adding: "Here we are, a couple of days after the 4th of July weekend. Not many people are thinking about politics."

Last November, voters in the district returned Schock to Washington, D.C., only to watch him resign in March following an investigation of his campaign spending, and an ethics probe.

Today, three Republicans seek the opportunity to serve out Schock's term. There are also two Democrats -- both of whom face an uphill battle in a district where the previous Democratic nominee, Darrel Miller, got 25% of the vote in 2014.

Rob Mellon lost to Miller in last year's primary. He joins Adam Lopez, a Springfield School Board member, on today's ballot.

Streb says Mellon and Lopez are similar in two ways: neither raised much money and both support action on climate change. "In the 18th District this is a controversial issue," Streb says, "because there's a lot of coal production that comes out of that area."

Among the Republicans, state Senator Darin LaHood has the most name recognition -- which Streb witnessed firsthand. "I just spent last weekend in Springfield," says Streb, "and I didn't see a single sign for anybody but Darin LaHood."

LaHood's father is former Congressman Ray LaHood. Son Darin, according to Streb, spent more than $400,000 on the race and has $500,000 in the bank. Donors to his campaign fund include Gov. Bruce Rauner and Steve Scalise, the House Majority Whip.

Another GOP candidate, Donald Rients, raised a fraction of that amount ($6,827) and spent nearly all of it.

LaHood's closest challenger, Mike Flynn, spent $31,000 and has a similar amount left. Flynn, a political strategist, frequently reminds voters that LaHood's father was President Barack Obama's transportation secretary -- a useful tactic in a district where Obama only got 37% support in 2012. Flynn also accuses LaHood of taking positions that are counter to what his donors might expect.

"So on Trade Promotion Authority or TPA," Streb says, "LaHood has said he'd vote against that. Yet the Chamber of Commerce, which spent $90,000 on ads supporting LaHood, clearly supports that." Streb says Flynn repeats this "flip flop" argument for LaHood's positions on ethanol subsidies and the gas tax.

"And so Flynn has been attacking LaHood as being disingenuous."

Still, Streb says money and name recognition will win -- as they usually do. "At the end of the day, I'd be very surprised if Darin LaHood doesn't emerge victorious."

Good morning, Early Riser! Since 1997 I've been waking WNIJ listeners with the latest news, weather, and program information with the goal of seamlessly weaving this content into NPR's Morning Edition.
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