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Senate Primaries Are A Preview For Nationwide Battle

U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk is a Republican who favors gun control and strong environmental protections.

You read that right. If you're surprised, that's because Kirk belongs to a dying breed -- a moderate Republican during a time when GOP candidates are trying to get to the right of each other on issues from abortion to immigration.

So it's not surprising that Kirk faces a primary challenge from conservative James Marter, a Peoria County businessman.

"Marter is taking a Tea Party-type stance, wanting to eliminate Common Core and repeal Obamacare," says Matt Streb, who chairs the political science department at Northern Illinois University.

Asked about how vulnerable Kirk is to Marter's attacks, Streb points to the state's business leaders as a barometer. "Conservative business Republicans don't particularly like Mark Kirk," Streb says. "But they're also not actively working against him."

Streb adds that Kirk has the support of every Republican in the Illinois Congressional delegation. "The establishment is still behind him, so I don't see him being threatened in the primary," Streb says. "Mark Kirk's problem becomes the General Election."

Streb cites a report in Politico referring to Kirk as the most endangered Republican in the country.

According to Streb, the math doesn't favor Republicans in general. They're defending 24 seats while Democrats need to pick up just five to take control of the upper chamber. Three states -- Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire -- are battlegrounds.

"All three of those states have a vulnerable moderate senator," Streb says. "And if you look at Illinois, it's almost certainly going to be a blue state." He says national Republicans have almost conceded Illinois since they're going to be far more concerned about protecting those other incumbents.

"That said," Streb cautions, "Kirk has a lot of money. This is going to be one of the most watched Senate races in the country."

Tammy Duckworth (L), Napoleon Harris and Andrea Zopp (R).

Three Democrats are vying to face Kirk in November: Tammy Duckworth, Napoleon Harris, and Andrea Zopp. Duckworth is leaving her U.S. House seat in the 8th Congressional District. Harris is a state senator, and Zopp is a former Cook County prosecutor.

In the interest of full disclosure, Streb says Duckworth is a student in his department, working on her dissertation. "I don't work with her though," he says.

Streb says Duckworth surprised many Democrats by being the first to challenge Kirk after it became known that he was running for re-election. Other potential candidates, according to Streb, included Cheri Bustos and Bill Foster. "Duckworth beat them all to the punch," he says. "So a lot of people thought she was going to get a free ride. Then, obviously, Zopp and Harris had other plans."

Streb says Zopp has high-profile endorsers such as Congressman Danny Davis, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley.

Despite this, Duckworth is focused mainly on Kirk. "And Mark Kirk has honed in on her," Streb says. "He's already run ads attacking Tammy Duckworth." However, Streb is certain that national Democrats will support whoever wins the primary.

Going into next Tuesday, Duckworth is the front-runner when it comes to fundraising. The latest figures show her with $3.6 million in cash compared to $1 million for Harris and $370,000 for Zopp.

Sen. Kirk has about the same amount as Duckworth.

Streb expects one county to decide the Democratic primary. "If Zopp is going to do well, she needs to beat Duckworth in Cook County. That's essentially where this race is won or lost."

Good morning, Early Riser! Since 1997 I've been waking WNIJ listeners with the latest news, weather, and program information with the goal of seamlessly weaving this content into NPR's Morning Edition.
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