Many political scientists sign up for candidate email alerts, which can reveal clues about a campaign's confidence level. NIU's Matt Streb doesn't sign up for these emails, but Bill Foster's campaign sent him one anyway -- right after his 2012 victory in Illinois' 11th Congressional District.
"He was out right away trying to raise money," Streb says. "And sure enough, he was targeted almost immediately by Darlene Senger." Senger, a state Representative, won 37% of the votes in a four-way Republican primary in March.
Senger's primary success aside, Foster's rush to fundraise might seem odd after his recent 18-percentage-point victory. Streb notes the district was drawn to favor Democrats, and Foster is clearly winning on fundraising -- $2.5 million vs. Senger's $660,000. But the incumbent appears to be taking no chances:
"This has the potential to be another Melissa Bean race," Streb says, remembering the 2010 race when Bean, a Barrington Democrat, lost in an upset to Tea-Party favorite Joe Walsh. "And to this day," Streb says, "I'm still mad at myself because there were signs that we should've seen that coming."
Bean, who was heavily favored to win, lost by fewer than 300 votes.
Streb stresses that he doesn't expect Foster to lose on Nov. 4. "But," he cautions, "if you look at some polling, it's actually tighter than Bustos and Schilling," referring to the race in IL-17. Experts put that raceas leaning Democratic, with recent polls showing Cheri Bustos winning by 6 to 9 points. "Foster and Senger," Streb says, "is likely Democratic and it's been about 2 to 3 points, within the margin of error."
Issues in IL-11 include immigration reform. Both candidates have been courting Latinos, who make up 27% of the population in the district. Senger supported legislation that gives the state's undocumented immigrants access to special driver's licenses. Foster supports comprehensive immigration reform at the federal level. But Streb cautions against lumping Latinos into a single voting bloc, and assuming they're focused solely on immigration law:
"They care about job creation, they care about social issues. They care about the issues that everybody else cares about," Streb says, "yet we often talk about just one issue, immigration."
The tight race in IL-11 contrasts sharply with the race in the nearby IL-8, where incumbent Democrat Tammy Duckworth appears to be cruising to victory. Like Foster, Duckworth won in 2012 after redistricting made the 8th more Democratic.
Duckworth faces Lawrence Kaifesh, a Marine Corps veteran of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. But she hasn't campaigned much because of a pregnancy that's considered high risk, partly because of her age (she's 46), and partly because of injuries she received during the Iraq War. Her baby is due in December.
Streb says Duckworth has little to worry about, noting the 8th District is just as Democratic as the 17th. "She's raised about $2.5 million, Kaifesh has $280,000," he says. "I just can't conceive of Tammy Duckworth losing on Election Day."
Friday, Streb analyzes the hotly-contested Governor's race. Listen during Morning Edition at 6:34 and 8:34, then come back here for more information. And don't forget: Matt Streb joins the WNIJ news team for live coverage on Election Night as the results come in. We hope you'll join us for our special coverage, which starts at 7:00 p.m.
