In 2012, Democrat Cheri Bustos unseated incumbent Bobby Schilling in Illinois' 17th Congressional District. Schilling, a Republican, won two years earlier during a national wave of Tea Party-backed upsets.
Because Schilling won in a mainly Democratic district, the party's map-makers in Springfield redrew the 17th to include even more Democrats. The gerrymander worked, with Schilling falling to Bustos by 6 points.
"Schilling was one of the more vulnerable Republicans in 2012," according to political scientistMatt Streb. "That was a much more Democratic year with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket." But unlike the other big rematch in Illinois, in the 14th, the opponents are more equally matched with Schilling raising more than $1 million.
"That's still well behind Cheri Bustos who's raised about $2.6 million," Streb says, "but this could be a competitive race."
Streb notes national Democrats made Bustos part of their Frontline program, which is designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. "So I think they saw this race coming."
Both candidates are competing in a district that's more diverse than the 14th and 16th. IL-17 has concentrations of traditionally Democratic voters, such as union members and African-Americans. It also has farmers, gun owners and other rural conservatives, so serving all these constituents can be a challenge for an incumbent. But Streb says Bustos's party loyalty score of 85% shows some effort. "What that indicates is she's one of the more moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives," he says. "So that could benefit her in some rural areas."
Most polls give Bustos a lead of 6 to 9 points, which may reflect the fundraising efforts of the Frontline program. It definitely reflects more competitive races elsewhere in Illinois, according to Streb:
"If you ask Republicans truthfully, they're going to say they've got a really good shot to beat Brad Schneider in the 10th. And they've got a really, really good shot at beating Bill Enyart in the 12th District, which is way down south."
With these races getting national attention, Streb says, polls showing another Bustos victory in the 17th "make sense."
On Thursday, Streb analyzes races in two Congressional Districts, the 11th and 8th. Then on Friday, he'll look at the race for Governor. Listen during Morning Edition at 6:34 & 8:34, then come back here for more information. On Election Day, Nov. 4, Streb will join the WNIJ news team for live coverage as the results come in.
Previous interviews covered the race for U.S. Senate, plus the contests in IL-14 & 16. Feel free to leave your comments at the bottom of each post using #WNIJ2014Election.
